兴业研究：气候物理风险对我国商业银行信贷资产质量影响整体可控

Core Viewpoint - The research report by Industrial Research indicates that Chinese commercial banks exhibit strong resilience to climate physical risks, although there are variations in performance among different types of banks and under different stress scenarios [1][3]. Group 1: Research Methodology - The study conducted climate physical risk stress tests on six large state-owned commercial banks and twelve joint-stock commercial banks, focusing on non-performing loan (NPL) ratios as the core indicator [3]. - The research established a climate physical risk index based on extreme high-temperature and extreme precipitation events to represent risk levels, considering future temperature increases and changes in precipitation patterns [3]. Group 2: Key Findings - The climate physical risk level in China is projected to increase over time, with a significant rise in the risk index under severe stress scenarios by 2030, primarily due to the increased frequency of extreme high-temperature events [3]. - The potential climate physical risk for banks is influenced by the climate risk status of the loan issuance locations and the proportion of loans allocated to those areas, with state-owned banks and joint-stock banks showing different levels of climate physical risk [3][4]. Group 3: Impact on Loan Quality - Climate physical risk shocks are expected to lead to a noticeable increase in banks' non-performing loan ratios, with joint-stock banks having a higher average NPL ratio compared to state-owned banks [4]. - Despite the impact of climate physical risks, all banks are projected to meet regulatory limits on NPL ratios even under severe stress scenarios [4]. - The expected credit losses will increase due to climate physical risk shocks, but loan impairment provisions are anticipated to cover expected default losses even in severe stress conditions [4].