部分地区猪价跌入“6元时代”，中央冻猪肉收储即将开启

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced plans to conduct central frozen pork reserve storage due to declining pork prices, which have been on a downward trend since early July 2023 [1][2]. Price Trends and Influencing Factors - Pork prices have been affected by weak demand and market sentiment, with the national average pork-to-grain price ratio falling below 6:1, entering a warning zone [2][5]. - The average price of lean pork in 16 provinces was reported at 18.08 yuan per kilogram, down 0.8% week-on-week and 34.8% year-on-year [3]. - The average price of external three yuan pigs has dropped to 13.82 yuan per kilogram, a decrease of 4.2% month-on-month and 33% year-on-year, with some regions seeing prices below 13 yuan per kilogram [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply pressures are significant, with the number of breeding sows remaining high at 40.43 million, exceeding normal levels by 3.7% [3]. - Demand remains weak despite some seasonal boosts from events like school openings, as high temperatures have kept pork consumption low [4]. Government Intervention and Market Impact - The government’s pork reserve is a crucial part of the food security system, with the latest storage plan involving 10,000 tons of pork, which is expected to stabilize prices and support market confidence [6][7]. - The storage of 10,000 tons is estimated to require the slaughter of about 200,000 pigs, which could alleviate supply pressure and stabilize prices in the short term [7]. Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that pork prices will remain low with limited rebound potential due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [7]. - In the medium to long term, the industry may see a turning point in pig output by mid-2026, transitioning to a new cycle characterized by smaller fluctuations and stable profitability [7].