种氮协提示：下半年氮肥企业生产应更加谨慎理性

Core Insights - The domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, but companies should adopt a cautious and rational approach due to declining agricultural demand, weak industrial demand, and increasing uncertainties in the international market [1][2] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply capacity has been increasing, with an additional urea production capacity of 2.64 million tons expected in the second half of 2024 and 0.95 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading to a cumulative supply increase of over 1.3 million tons [1] - The average daily production of urea in the first half of 2025 is reported at 193,000 tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative operating rate of 83.2% [1] - The first half of 2023 saw a total nitrogen fertilizer export of 2.818 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The nitrogen fertilizer market faces multiple influencing factors, including increasing pressure from excess domestic capacity, widening cost disparities between coal-based and gas-based enterprises, and a gradual decline in domestic agricultural demand [2] - An estimated 3.38 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 4.22 million tons of urea production capacity are expected to come online in the second half of the year, with 1.38 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 1.2 million tons of urea already in production [2] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - The nitrogen fertilizer industry should focus on strict capacity control and rational production management, maintain a self-discipline export mechanism, and balance international and domestic markets [2] - Emphasis should be placed on technological innovation, digital transformation, and supply-side structural reforms to enhance industry competitiveness and promote green transformation [2] - Accurate, timely, and complete statistical data is crucial for policy formulation and enterprise decision-making, necessitating improvements in data quality and statistical capabilities [2]