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华福证券:7月锑品产量继续下降 出口预期增强锑价有望反弹
智通财经网·2025-08-22 02:41

Group 1: Core Insights - The report from Huafu Securities indicates that antimony export expectations are strengthening, and the industry is approaching the traditional peak season of September and October [1] - Short-term, with the increase in export expectations, antimony prices are likely to rebound from the bottom [1] Group 2: Antimony Ore - In July 2025, China imported 2,307 tons of antimony ore, a month-on-month increase of 483 tons (+27%) but a year-on-year decrease of 3,885 tons (-63%); from January to July, imports totaled 20,223 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11,834 tons (-37%) [1] - In July, China imported 0 tons from Tajikistan (down 76 tons), 428 tons from Russia (up 428), 365 tons from Peru (down 397), and other countries with varying import volumes [1] - From January to July, companies registered in Shandong imported 8,180 tons of other precious metal ores from Russia, a month-on-month increase of 21% but a year-on-year decrease of 21%; total imports for the same period reached 67,732 tons, a year-on-year increase of 15,168 tons (+29%) [1] Group 3: Antimony Ingots - In July, the production of antimony ingots was 3,767 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25% and a year-on-year decrease of 35%; from January to July, cumulative production was 40,400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6% (-2,387 tons) [2] - In July, China exported 0 tons of antimony ingots, with cumulative exports from January to July totaling 267 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 86% [2] Group 4: Antimony Oxide - In July, the production of antimony oxide was 4,780 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 40%; cumulative production from January to July was 45,000 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25% [3] - In July, exports totaled 74 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13 tons (-15%) and a year-on-year decrease of 2,725 tons (-97%); cumulative exports from January to July were 4,725 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 15,369 tons (-77%) [3] Group 5: Downstream Demand - In July, the production of sodium antimonate was 2,738 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 2.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 16%; cumulative production from January to July was 15,806 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 38% [4] - In July, photovoltaic glass production was 2.17 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 11% but a year-on-year decrease of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 15.01 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 10% [4] - In July, chemical fiber production was 7.34 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.3% but a year-on-year increase of 4.6%; cumulative production from January to July was 49.98 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5% [4] - In July, ABS resin production was 560,000 tons, a month-on-month increase of 7.3% and a year-on-year increase of 19%; cumulative production from January to July was 3.78 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 26% [4] - In July, the total production of PET (including polyester chips, flat sheets, short fibers, and long fibers) was 6.34 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 0.1% and a year-on-year increase of 17%; cumulative production from January to July was 42.8 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 14% [4] Group 6: Supply, Demand, and Prices - As of August 20, 2025, the price of antimony ingots in China was 182,500 yuan per ton, down 24% from the year's peak; overseas antimony prices ranged from 55,000 to 58,000 USD per ton, with expectations of further price declines due to continuous capacity release abroad and rising domestic export expectations [5] - The report suggests that with the strengthening of export expectations, prices may rebound from the bottom in the short term [5]