中金：维持友邦保险(01299)跑赢行业评级 升目标价至83港元

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains AIA Group's (01299) net profit forecast for 2025-2026 and an outperform rating, raising the target price (P/EV) by 12.2% to HKD 83.0, indicating a 12.0% upside from the current stock price [1] Group 1: New Business Value and Financial Performance - AIA's new business value (VONB) for 1H25 grew by 14% and 16% year-on-year under constant exchange rates (CER) and actual exchange rates (AER) respectively, aligning with CICC's expectations [2] - The operating profit per share (OPAT) increased by 12% year-on-year (AER and CER), while the basic free surplus per share rose by 10% (CER) and 11% (AER) [2] - The interim dividend per share increased by 10% to HKD 0.49, exceeding both CICC's and market expectations [2] Group 2: Growth Targets in New Markets - AIA's VONB in mainland China decreased by 4% (CER), but the value rate improved to 58.6%, with a target of achieving a 40% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in new markets from 2025 to 2030 [3] - The company aims for a VONB CAGR of approximately 15% in mainland China over the next five years, supported by a unique operating model and strong talent management [3] Group 3: Performance in Hong Kong and Other Markets - AIA's VONB in Hong Kong increased by 24% in 1H25, with both local customers and mainland tourists contributing to double-digit growth [4] - In Thailand, VONB grew by 35% year-on-year, benefiting from regulatory changes, while Singapore's VONB rose by 16% due to product adjustments [5] - Malaysia's agent channel showed signs of recovery, although it remained weak, with growth in the bancassurance channel offsetting some negative impacts [5] Group 4: Strategic Direction with New Leadership - AIA announced that Mark Tucker will return as independent non-executive chairman in October 2025, having previously served as CEO from 2010 to 2017, recognized for strong operational performance [6] - The market is advised to monitor the strategic direction, financial goals, and potential changes in investor expectations following Tucker's return [6]