中氮协提示：下半年氮肥企业生产应更加谨慎理性

Core Insights - The domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply is expected to remain stable in the second half of the year, but companies should adopt a cautious and rational approach due to declining agricultural demand, weak industrial demand, and increasing uncertainties in the international market [1][2] Group 1: Production and Capacity - The domestic nitrogen fertilizer supply capacity has been increasing, with an additional urea production capacity of 2.64 million tons expected in the second half of 2024 and 0.95 million tons in the first half of 2025, leading to a cumulative supply increase of over 1.3 million tons [1] - The average daily production of urea in the first half of 2025 is projected to be 193,000 tons, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year, with a cumulative operating rate of 83.2% [1] - The first half of 2025 saw a daily production level of urea fluctuating between 190,000 and 200,000 tons, marking the highest level in nearly a decade [1] Group 2: Demand and Consumption - The apparent consumption of synthetic ammonia reached 38.973 million tons in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 9.3%, while the apparent consumption of nitrogen fertilizer was 23.919 million tons (pure), up 7% [1] - Urea apparent consumption was 36.057 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.4% [1] - Cumulative nitrogen fertilizer exports in the first half of the year totaled 2.818 million tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2% [1] Group 3: Market Challenges and Strategic Focus - The nitrogen fertilizer market faces multiple challenges in the second half of the year, including increasing pressure from excess domestic capacity, widening cost disparities between coal-based and gas-based enterprises, and a gradual decline in domestic agricultural demand [2] - An estimated 3.38 million tons of synthetic ammonia and 4.22 million tons of urea production capacity are expected to come online in the second half of the year, with some capacity already operational [2] - The industry is urged to focus on strict capacity control, rational production management, self-discipline in export mechanisms, international market expansion, technological innovation, digital transformation, and supply-side structural reforms [2]