下游开工明显回升 铝价大概率维持区间震荡格局

Core Viewpoints - The aluminum futures market is experiencing a slight upward trend, with the main contract reaching a peak of 20,730.00 yuan and closing at 20,645.00 yuan, reflecting a 0.22% increase [1] Group 1: Short-term Outlook - Dongwu Futures predicts that aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating trend in the short term due to high supply levels and a noticeable recovery in downstream initial operations, with various sectors seeing varying degrees of order recovery [1] - Zhongjin Wealth Futures anticipates that aluminum prices will likely remain in a range-bound fluctuation pattern, influenced by the U.S. government's recent imposition of a 50% tariff on numerous aluminum derivative products, which is expected to suppress China's aluminum product exports, particularly to the U.S. [1] - Donghai Futures indicates that while there is limited medium-term upside for aluminum prices, short-term fluctuations are expected, with a significant decrease in aluminum inventory by 11,000 tons, marking a substantial decline [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The recent increase in aluminum inventory in the LME market has stabilized, rising approximately 140,000 tons since late June, suggesting a potential weakening of the rebound foundation for prices [2] - The current spot market is in a state of discount, with downstream enterprises primarily engaging in essential procurement, indicating that high aluminum prices are somewhat suppressing restocking intentions [1]