Xin Lang Cai Jing·2025-08-22 06:24Investment Highlights - The company is rated as outperforming the industry with a target price of 6.85 CNY for A-shares and 5.61 HKD for H-shares, based on dividend yield valuation methods, corresponding to 4.5%/4.7% dividend yields for 2025/2026 for A-shares and 6.0%/6.4% for H-shares [1] - The company possesses core road assets in the Chengdu-Chongqing region, with strong profitability, backed by the Shudao Group, managing approximately 900 kilometers of road assets, primarily connecting Chengdu with major cities in Sichuan and serving as significant transit routes to other provinces [1] - The company has maintained an average gross margin of 52.8% over the past decade, indicating strong profitability within the industry [1] Sustainable Profit Growth - The company is actively investing in core road assets with short remaining toll collection periods through expansion and acquisitions, including the ongoing expansion of Chengle Expressway and the acquisition of Chengdu Second Ring West, which is expected to contribute 160 million CNY in profit by 2025 [2] - The company has a high dividend payout ratio, with a commitment to return at least 60% of profits to shareholders from 2023 to 2025, leading to a projected dividend yield of 5.2% in 2024, which is among the highest in the highway industry [2] - The company believes it can effectively extend the remaining toll collection periods and expand its highway business through strategic investments, despite market concerns regarding the short remaining periods of core road assets [2] Potential Catalysts - Key catalysts for growth include the completion of the Chengle Expressway expansion and ongoing asset acquisitions [3] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to have EPS of 0.51 CNY and 0.54 CNY for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with a CAGR of 6.3% from 2024 to 2026 [4] - Using a dividend yield approach, the target price for A-shares is set at 6.85 CNY, reflecting a 21.9% upside potential, while the target price for H-shares is 5.61 HKD, indicating a 14.5% upside potential [4]