桃李面包(603866)：Q2经营承压 期待后续改善

Core Insights - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, with revenue at 2.61 billion yuan, down 13.6% year-on-year, and net profit at 200 million yuan, down 29.7% [1] - In Q2 2025, revenue was 1.41 billion yuan, a decrease of 13.0% year-on-year, and net profit was 120 million yuan, down 31.4% [1] Revenue Performance - In Q2 2025, the bread and pastry segment generated 1.39 billion yuan, down 12.6% year-on-year, while other products brought in 20 million yuan, down 38.9% [2] - Regional revenue performance varied, with the Central China region showing a robust growth of 15.3%, while other regions experienced declines [2] Cost and Profitability - The gross margin for Q2 2025 was 23.8%, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the limited effect of fixed cost dilution from declining revenue [3] - The net profit margin for Q2 2025 was 8.5%, down 2.3 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting the pressure on profitability [3] Strategic Adjustments - The company is actively enhancing its product development and promotion to adapt to market changes, introducing new products to maintain competitiveness [2][3] - There is a focus on expanding the sales network in emerging markets while refining strategies in mature markets to tap into market potential [3] Future Outlook - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.41 billion, 5.66 billion, and 5.94 billion yuan, with expected year-on-year changes of -11.1%, +4.5%, and +5.0% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 430 million, 480 million, and 520 million yuan, with year-on-year changes of -18.1%, +11.3%, and +8.6% respectively [4]