能源降价难抵米价狂飙！日本核心CPI居高不下 市场押注央行10月加息

Core Insights - Japan's core CPI excluding fresh food rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, slightly down from 3.3% in June, but still significantly above the central bank's 2% target [1] - A deeper inflation indicator, which excludes both energy and fresh food, remained high at 3.4%, indicating persistent price pressures in Japan [1] - Despite a 0.3% year-on-year decline in energy prices due to restored subsidies, rice prices surged by 90.7% year-on-year, and processed food prices saw a monthly increase of 8.3%, the highest in nearly a year [1] - Analysts believe that if inflation remains elevated, the Bank of Japan may end its decade-long ultra-loose monetary policy and initiate gradual interest rate hikes within the year [1] - A survey conducted from August 12 to 19 revealed that 63% of respondents expect the key interest rate to rise from 0.50% to 0.75% later this year, a significant increase from 54% the previous month [1] - Despite expectations of a slowdown in the U.S. economy leading to potential rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, over 70% of economists believe this will not affect the Bank of Japan's policy trajectory [1] - In the short term, 92% of economists anticipate that the interest rate will remain unchanged at the mid-September meeting, but there is a consensus for action in the fourth quarter [1] - Among 40 experts providing timelines, 38% favor October for a potential rate hike, 30% lean towards January next year, and 18% bet on December [1][2]