中金：7月逆变器出口金额环降 预期逆变器公司Q2出货实现环比增长

Core Insights - The report from CICC indicates that inverter exports in July 2025 reached 4.8 million units, representing a year-on-year decline of 13% and a month-on-month decline of 10%. Cumulative exports totaled 32.3 million units, with a year-on-year increase of 1%. Export value amounted to $938 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 15% and a month-on-month decrease of 1%, with cumulative export value at $5.344 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] Export Performance - July inverter export value decreased slightly month-on-month, which was in line with expectations, while the year-on-year growth was significant [1] - The decline in export units by 10% month-on-month was offset by a smaller decline in export value of only 1%, attributed to an increase in the share of commercial storage exports, which raised the average unit value [1] - Despite the summer break in Europe, demand in major European markets grew month-on-month in July, with Germany's exports at $49 million (down 6% year-on-year, flat month-on-month) and the Netherlands at $234 million (up 62% year-on-year, up 31% month-on-month) [1] - Exports to the U.S. reached $32 million, showing a year-on-year increase of 35% and a month-on-month increase of 7%, influenced by tariff windows and the decline in subsidies from the Inflation Reduction Act [1] - Australia showed remarkable performance with exports of $54 million, a year-on-year increase of 206% and a month-on-month increase of 66%, driven by subsidies stimulating downstream demand [1] - Southeast Asia saw a slight month-on-month decline in demand due to the rainy season, but year-on-year growth remained high, with exports to Vietnam at $15 million, a year-on-year increase of 186% and a month-on-month decrease of 25% [1] Regional Export Insights - In July, Zhejiang's export value increased month-on-month, while Jiangsu and Anhui showed significant year-on-year growth [2] - Jiangsu's export value was $14.3 million, up 94% year-on-year but down 6% month-on-month. Anhui's exports were $12 million, up 31% year-on-year and flat month-on-month [2] - Zhejiang's exports totaled $21.8 million, down 4% year-on-year but up 9% month-on-month, indicating a positive demand trend driven by emerging markets [2] - Guangdong's exports reached $34.5 million, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8% and a month-on-month increase of 1% [2] Pricing Trends - The increase in the share of commercial storage exports has led to a rise in the average export price per unit [3] - In July, the export prices for grid-connected inverters of 20, 50, and 110KW were stable at 0.14, 0.13, and 0.12 yuan/W respectively for July and August [3]