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供应量低位 9月国内菜粕现货价格或将维持高位运行
Xin Hua Cai Jing·2025-08-22 07:09

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has preliminarily ruled that Canadian canola seeds constitute dumping, leading to anti-dumping measures that have tightened raw material supply and driven up canola meal prices to a new high in over a year [1][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Canola meal prices surged significantly in mid-August due to concerns over raw material supply tightening, with futures prices hitting a new high [1]. - As of August 15, 2025, the total canola meal inventory at major domestic ports was 567,500 tons, a week-on-week increase of 25,000 tons, or 4.60% [5]. - The supply of canola meal is expected to remain high due to low inventory levels at oil mills and major ports, with a forecasted average price increase [8]. Group 2: Import and Supply Issues - Canada has been a crucial supplier of canola seeds, accounting for 95% of imports in the first seven months of 2025, with a total import volume of 2.084 million tons [1]. - Following the imposition of high deposit requirements on Canadian canola seeds after August 14, the likelihood of canceling planned purchases for August and September has increased [1][3]. - The import volume of canola meal from Canada decreased by 23.20% year-on-year, while imports from other countries like the UAE and Russia have increased, but they do not sufficiently replace Canadian supplies [8]. Group 3: Production and Processing - The operating rate of oil mills has remained low since the second quarter, with only three companies maintaining production, leading to a forecasted canola meal output of 134,000 tons in August and a decrease to 114,000 tons in September [6][8]. - The anticipated shortage of Canadian canola seeds may lead to sporadic shutdowns of processing facilities by the end of September, further tightening canola meal supply [6].