Market Overview - The US dollar index strengthened, reaching an intraday high of 98.67 before closing up 0.43% at 98.62 [1][2] - Spot gold opened with a jump but fell throughout the day, hitting an intraday low of $3325.19 before closing down 0.29% at $3338.55 per ounce [1][2] - Spot silver rose by 0.56%, closing at $38.10 per ounce [1][2] Economic Indicators - The US August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 53.3, the highest in 39 months, exceeding expectations of 49.5 and the previous value of 49.8 [3] - The US August S&P Global Services PMI preliminary value was 55.4, a two-month low, below expectations of 54.2 and the previous value of 55.7 [3] - Initial jobless claims for the week ending August 16 were 235,000, marking the largest increase in three months, above the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 224,000 [3] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in September is 25%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 75% [4] - In October, the probability of maintaining rates is 13.3%, with a cumulative 25 basis point cut probability of 51.5% and a 50 basis point cut probability of 35.3% [4] Trading Sentiment - Recent strong S&P data indicates potential continued price increases, leading to a stronger dollar and slight pressure on gold, while silver shows resilience due to its industrial properties [5] - Market participants are awaiting comments from Powell at the Jackson Hole central bank conference to assess the validity of September rate cut expectations [5] - The baseline scenario suggests that the US may face "stagflation" due to tariff impacts, providing some support for precious metals, which are expected to continue high-level fluctuations [5]
美联储降息押注迎关键验证时刻 贵金属将延续高位震荡
Jin Tou Wang·2025-08-22 07:08