五矿证券：短期铋价或将维持震荡态势 半导体等需求打造第二增长曲线

Core Viewpoint - The report from Wenkang Securities indicates that the bismuth market is currently in a weak balance, with tight raw material supply supporting high bismuth prices, but weak exports and high inventory levels limiting recovery potential in the short term [1] Supply Side - China maintains a dominant position in global bismuth supply, accounting for 75% of the world's production in 2023, which totals 23,940 tons [3] - The expansion of production capacity is constrained by raw material shortages, and domestic bismuth inventory is decreasing, alleviating inventory pressure [3] - Future bismuth supply is expected to increase slightly, with growth rates around 2-4%, primarily from large non-ferrous smelting enterprises and recycling companies [3] Demand Side - Domestic bismuth consumption remains focused on traditional sectors, but high-tech demand from semiconductors and electronics is opening a second growth curve for bismuth [4] - China is the largest exporter of bismuth, with over 60% of bismuth metal used for export, and long-term export volumes are expected to return to normal levels [4] - Global bismuth consumption is projected to grow at a rate of 8-10%, driven by demand from electronics, semiconductors, and new energy sectors [4] Industry Transformation - The bismuth industry in China is accelerating its transformation towards high value-added products, with ongoing research and application advancements in bismuth electronic materials and bismuth-based nanomaterials [5] - Currently, China's bismuth products are primarily basic raw materials like refined bismuth and bismuth oxide, with a need to focus on high-purity bismuth, high-end bismuth alloys, and bismuth compounds to close the technological gap with Europe, the US, and Japan [5]