汇丰：关税冲击下AI助力美企降本增效 或支撑标普500年底涨至7000点

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that tariffs may negatively impact U.S. corporate profit margins, but they could also catalyze the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) to reduce costs [1][2] - HSBC estimates that AI could feasibly lower operating costs for S&P 500 companies by 1% in the coming years, which would help offset about a quarter of the cost increase from a 20% effective tariff [1][3] - The report highlights that AI has been a significant factor in driving U.S. stock market highs this year, particularly benefiting large tech stocks, but its impact extends beyond just the "Big Seven" tech companies [1][2] Group 2 - A major theme in the coming months will be how the broader adoption of AI can help companies maintain profit margins and earnings growth amid tariff pressures [2] - The average effective tariff is currently estimated at 18.7%, the highest level since 1933, which poses a significant headwind for companies [2] - Approximately 25% of the operating costs for S&P 500 companies depend on imports, and a 20% effective tariff could reduce earnings per share (EPS) by nearly 10% if companies fully absorb the costs [2] Group 3 - AI adoption is accelerating among U.S. companies, with a reported increase of 50% in the proportion of companies using AI since Trump's election, rising from 6% to 9% [2] - The adoption rate among large enterprises is likely underestimated, as 60% of S&P 500 companies mentioned AI usage in their Q2 earnings calls [2][3] - AI applications are not only aimed at cost reduction but also at automating tasks and enhancing efficiency, allowing companies to generate more revenue on the same cost base [3] Group 4 - Evidence suggests that S&P 500 companies are experiencing a structural shift in productivity, with revenue growth outpacing cost of goods sold (COGS) growth over the past two years [3] - In a sample of 44 S&P 500 companies, the median reported operating cost decreased by 1.5%, and average efficiency improved by 24% [3] - If AI adoption across S&P 500 companies can achieve a 1% cost saving, it could offset nearly a quarter of the negative impact from a 20% effective tariff, potentially leading to a meaningful market re-rating [3]