华尔街大牛给出美股大涨关键：美联储降息+制造业数据改善

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is divided on the outlook for U.S. stocks this year due to uncertainties surrounding tariffs and Federal Reserve interest rate policies, but a notable analyst believes the S&P 500 index could potentially break 7000 points by year-end, representing a nearly 10% increase from Thursday's closing price [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The continued rise of U.S. stocks will depend on two key signals: the Federal Reserve beginning to cut interest rates and a rapid recovery in U.S. manufacturing activity [1] - The ISM manufacturing index is used to gauge U.S. manufacturing activity, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion and below 50 indicating contraction; the index has been below 50 for 28 consecutive months, highlighting the weakness in U.S. manufacturing [1] - Lowering interest rates will reduce real yields, making stock valuations more attractive, while improvements in ISM data will support economic expansion, both of which are crucial indicators for the continued rise of U.S. stocks [1] Group 2: Market Phases - The year has been divided into three phases: initial concerns over tariffs, a V-shaped rebound in April, and a final phase where clearer and more accommodative Federal Reserve policies and stronger economic momentum are observed [2] - The baseline target for the S&P 500 index is set at 6600 points, but if tariffs lead to increased inflationary pressures or if ISM data continues to show weakness, even this target may not be achievable [2] - The S&P 500 index has seen a modest increase of 8.7% this year, caught in a tug-of-war between hopes for interest rate cuts and inflation risks driven by tariffs [2] Group 3: Market Sentiment - Prior to a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, the S&P 500 index had declined for five consecutive days, reflecting the current complex market psychology [2] - Most component stocks of the S&P 500 are trading below their 50-day moving average, with 493 out of 500 companies underperforming the index this year, indicating investor skepticism about the economy [2] - The enthusiasm for artificial intelligence is primarily reflected in a few leading companies, which may not represent the broader market sentiment [2]