关税冲击显现 德国Q2经济萎缩幅度超预期

Economic Performance - Germany's GDP contracted by 0.3% in Q2, worse than the initial estimate of a 0.1% decline, primarily due to a significant drop in manufacturing performance following the end of inventory buildup by U.S. companies [1][3] - Investment in Germany decreased by 1.4%, and private consumption did not provide the expected support to the economy [1][3] Economic Outlook - The economic contraction represents a major setback for Germany, undermining expectations of recovery from the economic downturn caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict [3] - The German economy is experiencing a reversal of the inventory buildup effect and is facing the initial comprehensive impact of U.S. tariffs, with a potential stagnation expected until next year [3] - The German central bank warned that GDP may not grow in Q3, with stagnation being the most likely outcome [3] External Factors - Germany's economy is affected by global economic sluggishness, geopolitical uncertainties, and long-standing issues such as an aging workforce and bureaucratic inefficiencies [3] - A recent agreement between the EU and the U.S. to impose a 15% tariff on most EU goods has faced strong criticism from the German industrial sector [3] Recent Developments - Despite the economic challenges, there is some optimism due to the new government's plans for significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, which are expected to show effects by 2026 [3] - The S&P Global's German Composite Purchasing Managers' Index indicated an unexpected acceleration in private sector activity in August, suggesting that the manufacturing sector may be nearing the end of a three-year slump [4]