债市日报：8月22日

Market Overview - The bond market experienced a downturn on August 22, with long-term bond pricing slightly higher after VAT adjustments, leading to a weak sentiment in the primary market that affected the secondary market [1] - Government bond futures closed lower across the board, with the 30-year main contract down 0.12% to 115.980, and the 10-year main contract down 0.18% to 107.660 [2] Interest Rates - In the interbank market, the yield on major bonds generally increased, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 0.6 basis points to 2.08% and the 10-year government bond yield up by 1.75 basis points to 1.875% [2] - The short-term funding rates continued to decline, with the overnight Shibor down 4.8 basis points to 1.418% [5] Fund Flows - Financial data indicates a significant outflow of deposits, estimated to exceed 5 trillion yuan, likely moving into "fixed income+" products and other asset management products [1][6] - The central bank conducted a net injection of 123.2 billion yuan through reverse repos on August 22, with a total of 3.612 trillion yuan in 7-day reverse repos [5] International Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 10-year yield increasing by 2.92 basis points to 4.316% [3] - Asian markets saw Japanese bond yields rise, with the 10-year yield up by 1.4 basis points to 1.622% [3] - In the Eurozone, the 10-year French bond yield increased by 4.9 basis points to 3.460% [3] Primary Market Results - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average winning rates for 10-year and 30-year government bonds at 1.83% and 2.15%, respectively, with bid-to-cover ratios of 2.58 and 2.89 [4] - Guizhou province's local bonds showed strong demand, with bid-to-cover ratios exceeding 24 times for all three issues [4] Institutional Insights - Institutions noted that the current yield on technology innovation bonds is relatively low, suggesting a lower cost-performance ratio if treated as ordinary credit bonds [6] - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" is attributed to declining deposit yields and the emerging "wealth effect" in capital markets, with funds being redirected towards insurance, wealth management, and directly into the stock market [6]