煤炭运销协会预测：8月炼焦煤市场多维驱动下仍有阶段性向上行情

Core Insights - The report from the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association indicates that the coking coal market has halted a nearly one-and-a-half-year decline as of July 2025, with both futures and spot prices rebounding from their lows [1] - The market is characterized by a "three up, one down, one stable" trend, where futures prices lead spot prices, spot prices lead long-term contracts, and coking coal prices lead steel and coke prices [1] - The overall market sentiment is stabilizing, supported by a decrease in production inventories and various driving factors such as supply changes, rigid demand, speculative stockpiling, and policy sentiment [1] Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that in August 2025, the coking coal market will continue to experience upward momentum due to multiple driving factors, despite potential limitations on price increases from the resumption of previously halted coal mines and stable imports [1] - Mid-month production cuts or suspensions due to safety inspections and deteriorating geological conditions are expected to provide significant support to the market [1] - The current price increases are primarily based on expectations of supply contraction and improved market sentiment rather than substantial improvements in downstream demand [1] Future Outlook - The overall market is in a phase of rebalancing supply and demand, seeking direction amid the current conditions [1] - The strength of the coking coal macro index remains weak and stable, indicating that the sustainability and intensity of the rebound will require careful policy support [1]