终端需求疲软致价格传导不畅 光伏电池、组件环节观望情绪浓厚

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting held by six departments, including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, signals a strong commitment to regulate competition in the photovoltaic industry and combat "involution" in the market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The average transaction price for N-type polysilicon has increased to 47,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week rise of 1.05%, while N-type granular silicon reached 46,000 yuan/ton, up 3.37% week-on-week [1] - Major polysilicon manufacturers are implementing production cuts, which is alleviating market supply pressure and leading to expectations of continued price increases [1] - The overall polysilicon supply is further constrained by manufacturers controlling shipments, resulting in increased purchasing demand from downstream buyers who are anticipating price hikes [1] Group 2: Inventory and Production - Despite the optimistic outlook, there are concerns regarding inventory levels, with an expected increase of approximately 20,000 tons in polysilicon inventory during August and September [1][2] - In August, polysilicon production is projected to reach between 125,000 and 130,000 tons, which may lead to rising inventory pressure [1] Group 3: Pricing Trends - The price of silicon wafers has remained stable, with average transaction prices for 183N, 210RN, and 210N silicon wafers holding steady at 1.20 yuan/piece, 1.35 yuan/piece, and 1.55 yuan/piece respectively [2] - The market sentiment for silicon wafers is positive due to recent policy advancements, but the weak end-demand is limiting the acceptance of high-priced orders [2][3] - Some silicon wafer manufacturers have begun to slightly increase prices, with new quotes for 183N at 1.25 yuan/piece, 210RN at 1.40 yuan/piece, and 210N at 1.60 yuan/piece, contingent on downstream acceptance [2] Group 4: Cell and Module Market - The average transaction prices for battery cells remain unchanged, with 183N, 210RN, and 210N cells priced at 0.29 yuan/W, 0.285 yuan/W, and 0.285 yuan/W respectively [3] - The module market is experiencing weak demand, with new orders being limited and primarily focused on fulfilling previous contracts, leading to lower overall transaction prices [3] - Recent bidding prices for modules range from 0.68 yuan/W to 0.75 yuan/W, indicating a need for careful observation of policy implementation to gauge market recovery [3]