欧美达成贸易协议降低风险 传欧洲央行官员愈发确信9月将按兵不动

Group 1 - European Central Bank (ECB) officials are increasingly confident that they can maintain interest rates unchanged in September, with economic growth and inflation aligning with ECB's June expectations [1][3] - The ECB's current forecast suggests inflation pressures will decline by 2026 and return to the 2% target by 2027, with the September quarterly forecast likely to confirm this scenario [1][4] - Following eight rate cuts of 25 basis points within a year, the ECB indicated a high threshold for further rate cuts, as unexpected economic growth and slightly higher-than-expected inflation were reported in the Eurozone [3][5] Group 2 - ECB President Lagarde noted that while recent trade agreements have alleviated some global uncertainties, they have not completely eliminated them, and the current tariff levels remain above those set in June [3][4] - The PMI report from S&P Global indicated that Eurozone business activity reached a 15-month high in August, although export orders showed signs of weakness [3] - Economists still anticipate a 25 basis point rate cut in December, although the probability of this occurring is considered to be below 50% by traders, who have not fully priced in potential further measures [5]