暴涨！刚刚，鲍威尔宣布！美联储降息大消息！

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signals potential interest rate cut in September, indicating a shift in monetary policy due to changing economic risks [3][4][8] Group 1: Economic Conditions - Powell highlights that the labor market appears stable but is experiencing a unique balance due to significant slowdowns in both labor supply and demand, leading to rising downside risks for employment [3][12] - The U.S. GDP growth rate has slowed to 1.2% in the first half of the year, significantly lower than the projected 2.5% for 2024, primarily due to reduced consumer spending [13] - Inflation risks are currently tilted upwards, while employment risks are leaning downwards, creating a challenging situation for policymakers [4][14] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - Powell suggests that the baseline outlook and risk balance may necessitate adjustments to the policy stance, with a reasonable scenario indicating a one-time increase in price levels due to tariffs [3][14] - The market now anticipates a 90% probability of a rate cut in September, up from 75% prior to Powell's speech, with traders pricing in two rate cuts by the end of the year [8] - Powell's comments indicate a dovish stance, suggesting he may support a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting [7][8] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following Powell's speech, the dollar index fell approximately 0.5%, and U.S. Treasury yields dropped, with the two-year yield decreasing by 9 basis points to 3.70% [5] - Major U.S. stock indices surged, with the Dow Jones rising over 700 points, the Nasdaq increasing by nearly 2%, and the S&P 500 gaining about 1.5% [8]