What to Expect from Fed Chair Powell's Jackson Hole Speech

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25-4.50% year-to-date, with a focus on achieving full employment and controlling inflation, targeting a 2% inflation rate [2][3] - Recent economic trends show a cooling labor market alongside rising inflation due to tariff initiatives, raising questions about a potential 25-basis-point rate cut at the upcoming September meeting [3][8] - The Fed's decision-making process is heavily reliant on economic data, with the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report due shortly after Powell's speech, which is expected to be data-dependent [6][8] Group 2 - The June PCE report indicated a headline inflation rate of +2.6%, which is moving away from the Fed's +2% target, while core PCE remained at +2.8% for two consecutive months [7][8] - The market showed positive movement in pre-market futures, with the S&P 500 attempting to break a five-session losing streak, reflecting adjustments in tech stock valuations and retail earnings amid tariff considerations [9]