CrowdStrike's Pre-Q2 Earnings Analysis: Hold or Fold the Stock?

Core Insights - CrowdStrike (CRWD) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results on August 27, 2025, with anticipated revenues between $1.14 billion and $1.15 billion, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 19.2% [1][8] - The expected non-GAAP earnings per share for the second quarter is between 82 cents and 84 cents, with a consensus estimate of 83 cents, indicating a year-over-year decline of 20.2% [2][8] - CrowdStrike's earnings have consistently beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate in the past four quarters, with an average surprise of 13.2% [3] Revenue and Earnings Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for CrowdStrike's fiscal second-quarter revenues is pegged at $1.15 billion, indicating a year-over-year growth of 19.2% [1] - The expected non-GAAP earnings per share for the second quarter is between 82 cents and 84 cents, with a consensus estimate of 83 cents, indicating a year-over-year decline of 20.2% [2] Growth Drivers - The demand for CrowdStrike's cybersecurity products is expected to benefit from the increasing number of cyber threats and breaches, leading to greater security needs [6] - The Falcon Flex subscription model is a significant growth driver, with a total deal value of accounts adopting Falcon Flex reaching $3.2 billion, representing a 31% sequential growth and over six times year-over-year growth [7][8] - The partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS) enhances CrowdStrike's product availability and co-selling opportunities, contributing positively to earnings [9][10] Cost Considerations - High Research & Development (R&D) and Sales & Marketing (S&M) costs are impacting CrowdStrike's profitability outlook, with R&D expenses increasing 12-fold and S&M expenses nearly ninefold over the last six fiscal years [19][20] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, CrowdStrike shares have increased by 21.1%, outperforming the Zacks Security industry, which has returned 8.2% [12] - CrowdStrike is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 19.54X, compared to the industry's 12.02X, indicating a premium valuation [15][17] Investment Considerations - The Falcon Flex subscription model is a key driver for new customer acquisition, with significant deals secured in the last quarter, indicating strong enterprise demand [18] - Despite the potential for long-term benefits from increased investments, rising costs and a premium valuation suggest a cautious approach for investors [20]