Alaska Air (ALK) Up 8.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Continue?

Core Viewpoint - Alaska Air Group (ALK) reported a mixed performance in its Q2 2025 earnings, with earnings per share beating estimates but showing a significant year-over-year decline. The company is facing challenges in maintaining profitability amid rising operating costs and a slight decrease in load factor [2][5][12]. Financial Performance - Q2 2025 earnings per share were $1.78, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.56 but down 30.2% year-over-year [2]. - Operating revenues reached $3.70 billion, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $3.65 billion, and increased by 27.8% year-over-year, with passenger revenues contributing 90.5% of the total and rising by 27% [2][3]. - Total operating expenses grew by 33% to $3.42 billion, while economic fuel prices decreased by 15.8% to $2.39 per gallon [6]. Revenue Breakdown - Passenger revenues totaled $3.35 billion, while cargo and other revenues increased by 93% to $139 million. Loyalty program revenues grew by 21% year-over-year to $210 million [3]. - Revenue per available seat mile (RASM) fell by 3.3% to 15.39 cents, and yield decreased by 4% to 16.62 cents [4]. Capacity and Traffic - Consolidated traffic, measured in revenue passenger miles, grew by 31.8% to 20.17 billion, while capacity, measured in average seat miles, rose by 32.2% to 24.05 billion [5]. - The load factor decreased to 83.9% from 84.1% in the prior year, indicating that traffic growth did not keep pace with capacity expansion [5]. Liquidity and Debt - As of June 30, 2025, Alaska Air had $750 million in cash and cash equivalents, down from $1.04 billion in the previous quarter. Long-term debt increased to $4.44 billion from $4.29 billion [7]. - The debt-to-capitalization ratio stood at 60% at the end of the reported quarter [7]. Future Outlook - For Q3 2025, Alaska Air anticipates adjusted earnings per share in the range of $1.00-$1.40, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate at $1.55 per share. Available seat miles are expected to decrease by 1% year-over-year [8]. - The company projects adjusted earnings per share for 2025 to exceed $3.25, with available seat miles expected to increase by 2% from 2024 [9]. Estimate Revisions - There has been a downward trend in estimates, with the consensus estimate shifting down by 13.91% over the past month [10]. - Alaska Air currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12]. Industry Comparison - Alaska Air is part of the Zacks Transportation - Airline industry, where Delta Air Lines (DAL) reported a slight revenue decline of 0.1% year-over-year, with an EPS of $2.10 compared to $2.36 a year ago [13].