Why Is Molina (MOH) Up 9.2% Since Last Earnings Report?

Core Viewpoint - Molina Healthcare's recent earnings report indicates a mixed performance, with adjusted EPS slightly missing estimates and total revenues showing significant year-over-year growth, but challenges remain due to rising medical care costs and operational expenses [3][4][7]. Financial Performance - Molina reported Q2 2025 adjusted EPS of $5.48, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $5.50, and reflecting a 6.5% decline from the previous year [3]. - Total revenues reached $11.4 billion, marking a 15.7% increase year-over-year and exceeding the consensus estimate by 5.4% [3]. - Premium revenues of $10.9 billion increased by 15% year-over-year, driven by contract wins and rate hikes, surpassing the consensus estimate of $10.4 billion [5]. Operational Metrics - Total membership grew by 3% year-over-year to approximately 5.7 million, although it fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.8% [6]. - The consolidated medical care ratio (MCR) was 90.4%, up from 88.6% a year ago, indicating higher medical costs relative to premium revenues [8]. Expense Analysis - Total operating expenses increased by 17% year-over-year to $11.1 billion, exceeding model estimates due to rising medical care costs and administrative expenses [7]. - Interest expenses rose to $48 million from $28 million in the prior year, reflecting increased financial costs [7]. Guidance and Future Outlook - Management projects premium revenues to reach around $42 billion in 2025, a 9% increase from 2024, but adjusted EPS guidance has been lowered to at least $19 from a previous estimate of $24.50 [11]. - Adjusted net income is now expected to be $1.028 billion, with total membership projected at 5.9 million by the end of 2025 [12]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates have shown a downward trend, with a significant shift of -35.62% in consensus estimates over the past month [13]. - Molina currently holds a Zacks Rank 5 (Strong Sell), indicating expectations of below-average returns in the near term [15].