Core Viewpoint - Intuit's shares are declining due to first-quarter revenue guidance falling short of estimates, prompting analysts to lower price forecasts [1][8]. Financial Performance - Intuit reported a strong fourth-quarter revenue of $3.83 billion, representing a 20% year-over-year increase, surpassing consensus estimates by $88 million [2][6]. - Adjusted operating income for the fourth quarter was $1.02 billion, with a margin of 26.5%, also exceeding expectations [2]. - Global Business Solutions Group (GBSG) revenue reached $3.01 billion, an 18% increase, driven by a 21% growth in the Online Ecosystem [3]. Revenue Breakdown - Online Ecosystem revenue was $2.22 billion, with Intuit Enterprise Suite (IES) and QBO Advanced growing approximately 40% [3]. - Credit Karma revenue increased by 35% to $638 million, while TurboTax Live revenue surged by 47% [3][7]. - Small and Medium Business (SMB) revenue remained flat year-over-year but generated higher profit and cash flow [3]. Future Guidance - Fiscal 2026 guidance is considered soft, with projected revenue of $21.0 billion to $21.19 billion, reflecting a 12-13% growth, which is below market expectations [4][8]. - Adjusted operating income for fiscal 2026 is forecasted at $8.61 billion to $8.69 billion [4]. - GBSG growth guidance of 14-15% includes a ~150 basis points drag from Mailchimp [4]. Analyst Insights - KeyBanc analyst Alex Markgraff maintains an Overweight rating but has reduced the price forecast from $850 to $825, citing Mailchimp headwinds [1][2]. - RBC Capital analyst Rishi Jaluria reiterates an Outperform rating with a price target of $850, highlighting broad-based strength in revenue growth [1][6]. - Both analysts noted that fiscal 2026 guidance does not account for potential AI agent monetization, which could provide upside later [4][8]. Market Reaction - Following the guidance announcement, Intuit's stock fell approximately 6% in after-hours trading, closing down 4.99% at $663.52 [9].
Intuit's Soft Guidance Shakes Stock, Analysts Bet On TurboTax, AI For Rebound