“买方真空”风险显现日债收益率迭创新高

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese government bond (JGB) market is facing significant pressure due to rising yields, driven by fiscal concerns and policy uncertainties, leading to a "buyer vacuum" risk in the market [1][3][4]. Group 1: Rising Yields - Recent data shows that the yield on Japan's 20-year government bonds reached over 2.67%, the highest level since 1999, while the 10-year yield closed at 1.615%, the highest since October 2008 [2]. - Year-to-date, the yield on 20-year JGBs has increased by nearly 45% [2]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to raise the provisional interest rate for government bonds to 2.6%, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting recent market yield averages plus a historical volatility adjustment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns - The loss of a majority in the House of Councillors by the ruling coalition has heightened concerns about Japan's fiscal policy, leading to expectations of increased fiscal expansion [3]. - Analysts suggest that the combination of fiscal deficit risks and policy uncertainties is contributing to the rising yields in the JGB market [3]. Group 3: Demand-Supply Imbalance - The demand side of the JGB market is changing, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies reducing their bond purchases [4]. - The Bank of Japan's move towards normalizing monetary policy has led to a significant reduction in its bond purchasing scale, creating a supply-demand mismatch in the market [4]. Group 4: Monetary Policy Caution - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization, avoiding rapid changes that could lead to market volatility [5]. - Despite pressure from U.S. officials for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates, the central bank has kept its policy rate at around 0.5% since its last increase in January [5][6]. - Inflation levels in Japan have remained above target, with the core consumer price index rising 3.1% year-on-year in July, complicating the Bank of Japan's policy decisions [6].