“买方真空”风险显现 日债收益率迭创新高

Core Viewpoint - Japanese government bond yields have been rising significantly, driven by fiscal deficit concerns and policy uncertainties, leading to investor hesitance [1][3]. Group 1: Rising Bond Yields - Recent data shows that Japanese government bond yields have reached new highs, with the 20-year bond yield exceeding 2.67%, the highest since 1999, and the 10-year yield reaching 1.615%, the highest since October 2008 [2]. - Year-to-date, the 20-year bond yield has increased by nearly 45% [2]. - The Japanese Ministry of Finance plans to raise the provisional interest rate for government bonds to 2.6%, the highest level in 17 years, reflecting recent market yield averages plus a historical volatility adjustment [2]. Group 2: Fiscal Concerns Impacting Investors - The recent loss of a majority in the House of Councillors by the ruling coalition has heightened concerns over Japan's fiscal policy, leading to expectations of increased fiscal expansion [3]. - Investors are worried that if the ruling coalition shifts towards fiscal expansion to stabilize electoral support, the risk premium on Japanese government bonds will continue to rise [3]. - The demand side of the bond market is also changing, with traditional buyers like life insurance companies reducing their purchasing activity, contributing to a supply-demand imbalance [3]. Group 3: Cautious Monetary Policy - The Bank of Japan is maintaining a cautious approach to monetary policy normalization, avoiding rapid changes that could lead to market volatility [4]. - In July, the Bank of Japan kept the policy interest rate at around 0.5%, following a series of unchanged rates since the increase in January [5]. - Despite pressure from U.S. officials for the Bank of Japan to act on inflation, the actual implementation of interest rate hikes may be delayed due to persistent inflation, economic recovery uncertainties, and fiscal vulnerabilities [5].