整治“内卷式”竞争初显成效畅通价格传导还需政策加力

Core Viewpoint - The recent wave of "involution" competition rectification across various industries has led to some improvement in industrial product prices, although the overall impact on price levels remains limited [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends and Market Reactions - Since July, there has been a significant increase in the futures prices of industrial products such as coking coal, polysilicon, and lithium carbonate, with the Nanhua Composite Index rising for four consecutive weeks [1]. - As of August 22, the current prices of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and other steel products, as well as polysilicon and lithium carbonate, are notably higher than early July levels [1]. - The rectification of "involution" competition has particularly focused on the photovoltaic industry, with polysilicon prices rebounding by 36.9% and industrial silicon prices by 7.26% from the beginning of the year to July [1][2]. Group 2: Impact on Producer Price Index (PPI) - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for July showed a narrowing decline, indicating that the "involution" measures are beginning to have an effect on prices [2][3]. - Key sectors such as coal mining, black metal smelting, and photovoltaic equipment manufacturing experienced reduced price declines compared to the previous month, contributing to a less negative impact on the PPI [2]. Group 3: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite some improvements in industrial product prices, the overall trend in PPI remains downward, suggesting that the impact of "involution" rectification on price levels is still unclear [3][4]. - The construction materials sector, particularly cement, has not shown significant price improvements, indicating a lag in the implementation of "involution" measures [3]. - High inventory cycles in certain industries are also hindering price recovery, with a transition from "active destocking" to "weak restocking" being necessary for price rebounds [3][4]. Group 4: Policy Measures and Consumer Demand - Recent government policies aimed at boosting consumer demand, such as subsidies for childbirth and education, are expected to help improve weak downstream demand [5]. - The mismatch and imbalance between supply and demand are significant factors contributing to "involution" competition, and stronger supply-side constraints could mitigate the impact of declining exports [5]. - The shift in consumer spending from goods to services is anticipated to accelerate as household income levels rise, with potential growth in sectors like entertainment, education, and healthcare [5][6].