Zheng Quan Shi Bao·2025-08-22 22:45Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for coking coal and coke has experienced a price decline since mid-August, but supply-side contraction expectations remain, leading to a potentially strong market outlook for the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since mid-August, coking coal and coke prices have generally retreated after a previous surge [1]. - As of August 22, the main coking coal futures contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, reflecting a 14% decline from its recent peak [2]. - The average ex-factory price for Shanxi's premium coking coal is reported at 1400 to 1450 yuan/ton, while Shandong's gas coal is at 960 to 990 yuan/ton [2]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current coal production is normal, but policies aimed at reducing capacity and inspections are expected to lead to supply-side contractions in the coal industry [2][3]. - The seventh round of coke price increases began on August 18, with expectations of further price adjustments due to supply constraints [3]. - As of August 21, the average operating load of 104 independent coking enterprises was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points [4]. Group 3: Price Support Factors - Limited production notifications have been issued for coking plants in Shandong and Hebei, indicating a potential reduction in coke supply [4]. - The average available days of coke inventory at 45 major steel mills is 7.28 days, showing a slight decrease, which suggests a tight supply situation [4]. - Despite recent price increases, the cost pressures on coking enterprises have eased due to falling coking coal prices, but limited production notifications may tighten supply further [4].