鲍威尔杰克逊霍尔“告别演讲”暗示9月降息 就业风险成关注焦点

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, while cautioning about rising risks in the labor market, which is a central theme of the current economic discussions [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell's remarks suggest that the Fed's policy remains in a restrictive range, with a shift in risk balance potentially necessitating a policy adjustment [1]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September has risen to approximately 86%, according to the CME FedWatch tool [1]. - Powell emphasized that monetary policy does not have a preset path, leaving the extent and pace of any rate cuts for future discussion [1][2]. Group 2: Labor Market Concerns - Powell warned of increasing downside risks in the employment sector, which could manifest as a wave of layoffs if the trend continues [2]. - The average monthly increase in non-farm payrolls for July was only 35,000, significantly below the expected 168,000 for 2024 [1][2]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Inflation - Powell noted that the current interest rate levels are closer to neutral than they were a year ago, suggesting that the restrictive nature of monetary policy has eased [2]. - Concerns were raised regarding the impact of tariffs from the Trump administration, which could lead to increased price pressures in the coming months, complicating the Fed's dual mandate [2]. - The market may be disappointed if it expects a rapid return to a low interest rate environment, as Powell implied that even if a rate cut occurs in September, it may not signal the start of a new easing cycle [2].