鲍威尔“放鸽”如期而至 市场应声沸腾狂欢

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street traders are betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, following dovish signals from Chairman Jerome Powell, leading to significant market rallies in both stocks and bonds [1][2][4] Market Reactions - U.S. Treasury prices rose, with the two-year Treasury yield dropping by 12 basis points after Powell indicated a possible adjustment in policy stance due to changing risk balances [1] - The S&P 500 index rebounded by 1.5%, nearing historical highs, while the Russell 2000 index surged nearly 4%, driven by interest rate-sensitive stocks [1][4] - The dollar weakened, and risk assets like Bitcoin increased in value, as the market anticipated Fed policies aimed at stimulating economic growth [1] Economic Indicators - Earlier this month, market expectations had already priced in a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Fed meeting, marking the first cut since December of the previous year [4] - Concerns about a slowdown in economic growth and potential declines in corporate earnings were highlighted, although the Fed is not expected to have a significant negative impact on investors [4][6] Political Pressures - The Fed is facing unprecedented pressure from President Trump, who has criticized Powell for not cutting rates sooner and has threatened to dismiss a Fed governor [6][7] - Despite Trump's skepticism regarding Powell's recent comments, the Fed aims to maintain its independence in monetary policy decisions [6][8] Future Outlook - Market sentiment has shifted positively following Powell's hints at policy changes, reminiscent of last year's Jackson Hole meeting where he signaled a gradual rate reduction [5] - However, uncertainties remain regarding future economic data and its potential impact on the Fed's decision-making process [8]