Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a significant speech at the Jackson Hole global central bank conference, indicating a strong signal for potential interest rate cuts and a return to the traditional 2% inflation target, abandoning the controversial Flexible Average Inflation Target (FAIT) [1][3][7]. Market Reaction - Following Powell's speech, the U.S. stock market experienced a surge, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 900 points, closing at a record high. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also recorded their largest single-day gains since May, with the market fear index (VIX) dropping by 12% [2][3]. - The probability of a rate cut in September jumped from 75% to 90% immediately after Powell's remarks, reflecting market optimism [3][5]. Economic Challenges - Powell acknowledged the challenging situation facing the Federal Reserve, noting a conflict between low inflation and a healthy labor market. He highlighted a significant slowdown in job growth, with an average of only 35,000 jobs added per month, far below the expected levels for 2024 [4][12]. - He emphasized the need for caution in adjusting economic restrictions, suggesting that rate cuts would not be implemented all at once [4]. Policy Framework Changes - Powell announced the abandonment of the FAIT framework, which allowed inflation to exceed 2% for a period. This decision was made in light of the framework's failure during the post-pandemic inflation surge [7][12]. - The Federal Reserve will revert to a more traditional inflation target of 2%, with a focus on anchoring inflation expectations [7][8]. Legacy and Independence Concerns - Powell's tenure is marked by a "fiscal dominance" era, where government fiscal policy has overshadowed monetary policy, raising concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve [12][14]. - The combination of significant government spending and aggressive monetary easing has led to a situation where the Fed's independence is perceived to be at risk, potentially leading to a "debt death spiral" as warned by Ray Dalio [12][14]. Future Implications - Powell's successor will face the challenge of controlling inflation without triggering a severe economic downturn while maintaining the Fed's independence amid political and fiscal pressures [16].
鲍威尔的“绝唱”:释放最强降息信号 美国“债务死亡螺旋”的幽灵已浮现
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-23 03:40