华泰固收：美联储9月降息25bp应该是基准情形

Core Viewpoint - Current conditions in the U.S. suggest a downward risk to employment growth, indicating a potential need for policy adjustments [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - Following Powell's speech, the market anticipates a dovish stance from the Federal Reserve, with a higher probability of a soft landing for the U.S. economy [1] - Major asset prices, excluding the U.S. dollar, have risen across the board [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to adopt a more accommodative policy stance, with a baseline scenario of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [1] - There is a higher likelihood of two additional 25 basis point cuts in the fourth quarter compared to just one [1] - Considering the influence of the Trump administration on the Federal Reserve, the extent of this easing cycle may exceed market expectations [1]