中国保险资产管理业协会：股票是下半年我国保险机构首选的投资资产

Core Viewpoint - The China Insurance Asset Management Association released a survey indicating that insurance institutions prefer stocks as their primary investment asset for the second half of 2025, followed by bonds and securities investment funds [1][4]. Macro Economic Aspects - Most insurance institutions expect stable economic growth in the second half of the year, with GDP growth projected between 4.5% and 5.5%, CPI growth between 0% and 0.5%, and PPI growth between -3.5% and -2.0%. The RMB exchange rate is anticipated to appreciate steadily, with a focus on exports, consumption, fiscal policy, and real estate investment [2]. Macro Policy Aspects - Insurance institutions predict a moderately accommodative monetary policy in the second half, with expectations for timely reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts to maintain ample liquidity. Fiscal policy is expected to be more proactive, leaning towards expansion to boost domestic demand and consumption, potentially increasing the issuance of ultra-long special government bonds [3]. Asset Allocation Preferences - Stocks are identified as the preferred investment asset for insurance institutions in the second half, followed by bonds and securities investment funds. Most institutions expect their asset allocation ratios to remain consistent with early 2025, with some considering slight increases in stock and bond investments [4]. Bond Market Outlook - Insurance institutions hold a neutral to optimistic view on the bond market for the second half, expecting 10-year government bond yields to range between 1.4% and 1.6%, and high-grade credit bond yields between 1.5% and 2.0%. There is a favorable outlook for ultra-long special government bonds, perpetual bonds, convertible bonds, and credit bonds with maturities over 10 years, influenced by economic fundamentals, monetary policy easing, and market liquidity [5]. A-Share Market Outlook - A majority of insurance institutions are optimistic about the A-share market, predicting the Shanghai Composite Index to likely remain between 3200 and 3800 points. They favor stocks related to the CSI 300 index, particularly in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, electronics, banking, computing, telecommunications, and national defense. Investment areas of interest include artificial intelligence, dividend assets, new productivity, high dividend yields, and innovative pharmaceuticals, with corporate earnings growth seen as a key factor affecting the A-share market [6]. Overseas Investment Preferences - Hong Kong stocks are favored for investment in the second half, with 40% of insurance institutions also optimistic about bond and gold investments [7].