风光新增项目砍半、化石能源新增资2000亿美元，特朗普2.0重塑美国能源转型

Group 1 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan proposed by the Trump administration aims to reduce incentives for renewable energy, leading to a significant decline in new installations of wind and solar power in the U.S. by over 50% in the next decade [1][2][3] - The plan will terminate various tax credits for renewable energy projects, including the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) for solar and wind energy, which have been crucial for the sector's growth [1][3] - A surge in installations is expected before the tax incentives expire, particularly between 2025 and 2027, followed by a sharp decline in new capacity additions [2][3] Group 2 - The "Big and Beautiful" plan is also expected to negatively impact the electric vehicle (EV) market, with tax credits for new and used EVs set to end, leading to a structural reduction in demand for EVs in the U.S. [3] - The U.S. government is projected to cut $122 billion in subsidies for electric vehicles by 2034, with a significant impact on EV sales starting in 2026 [3] - The plan is designed to bolster fossil fuel production, with policies aimed at increasing oil and gas extraction, which could lead to U.S. crude oil production rising to 13.4 million barrels per day this year [5] Group 3 - The overall energy policy shift under the "Big and Beautiful" plan is seen as a regression in the U.S. energy transition, favoring fossil fuels over renewable energy [5] - The plan includes measures to expand onshore and offshore oil and gas exploration, reduce royalties, and eliminate methane emission fees, enhancing the attractiveness of investments in the fossil fuel sector [5] - The cumulative investment in the fossil energy sector in the U.S. is expected to exceed $200 billion over the next decade, driven by favorable policy changes [5]