东兴证券：给予牧原股份买入评级

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the strong growth in the number of pigs sold by Muyuan Foods and the continuous optimization of costs, leading to significant increases in revenue and profit for the first half of 2025 [2][4]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 76.463 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.46%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 10.530 billion yuan, a staggering year-on-year increase of 1169.77% [2]. - The company sold a total of 46.91 million pigs in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 44.84% [2]. - The average selling price of pigs was approximately 14.48 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight decline of 3.69% year-on-year [2]. Cost Management - The complete cost of pig farming decreased to 12.1 yuan/kg in June 2025 and further to 11.8 yuan/kg in July 2025, with a target of 11 yuan/kg by the end of 2025 [2]. - The gross margin for the pig farming segment improved significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 10.59 percentage points due to optimized farming costs [2]. Slaughtering Operations - The company slaughtered 11.4148 million pigs in H1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 110.87%, with a utilization rate of 78.72% [3]. - The slaughtering business showed improvement, with a significant reduction in losses to around 100 million yuan [3]. Shareholder Returns and Expansion Plans - Muyuan Foods announced a cash dividend of 9.32 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 5.002 billion yuan, which accounts for 47.50% of the net profit for 2025 [3]. - The company is actively exploring overseas markets, having established a subsidiary in Vietnam and submitted an application for H-share listing to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [3]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The company is expected to maintain strong profitability, with projected net profits of 21.188 billion yuan, 24.250 billion yuan, and 34.205 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be 3.88 yuan, 4.44 yuan, and 6.26 yuan for the same years, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 12, 11, and 8 [4].