Ge Long Hui A P P·2025-08-23 10:30Core Insights - The report from CITIC Securities indicates a significant shift in household deposits, with a year-on-year decrease of 780 billion yuan in July, while non-bank deposits increased by 1.39 trillion yuan, suggesting a trend of residents moving their savings into financial products [1] - The narrowing "scissors gap" between M2 and M1 year-on-year growth rates reflects an increase in the liquidity of funds and a reduction in the phenomenon of deposit stagnation [1] Fund Flow Analysis - The report identifies three main areas where the "relocated" funds are likely to flow: 1) Insurance: Growth in premiums and a trend of insurance capital entering the market 2) Wealth Management: Continuous growth in scale with increasing preference for "fixed income +" products 3) Stock Market: A surge in individual investor account openings, with a more orderly influx of funds compared to last year's market conditions [1] Excess Savings Perspective - From the perspective of excess savings, CITIC Securities estimates that excess savings accumulated since 2018 exceed 30 trillion yuan, with 5 trillion yuan formed after 2022 likely to be used for consumption and investment in the near term [1] Deposit Reallocation Outlook - The bank forecasts that by 2025, over 90 trillion yuan in deposits may mature, and if 5%-10% of these funds seek higher returns, the outflow could range from 4.5 trillion to 9 trillion yuan. The reallocated deposits are expected to favor "fixed income +" asset management products for indirect market entry rather than concentrating solely in equity markets [1]