优化休耕空间布局保障可持续发展

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the need for optimizing fallow land scale and spatial layout in China from the perspective of the "three-in-one" protection of arable land quantity, quality, and ecology, highlighting the importance of establishing a systematic approach to fallow land management to ensure food security [1] Group 1: Fallow Land Scale and Predictions - The maximum fallow land scale predictions for China by 2030 are estimated to be 32.3731 million hectares, 26.7897 million hectares, and 21.2064 million hectares under 90%, 95%, and 100% food self-sufficiency rates, respectively [1] - The study employs system dynamics and grey prediction models to construct a maximum fallow scale prediction model [1] Group 2: Urgency of Fallow Land Implementation - There are significant differences in the urgency of fallow land implementation across provinces, with higher urgency levels observed in Shanghai, Inner Mongolia, Hainan, Gansu, and Qinghai, while lower urgency is noted in Sichuan, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou, and Jilin [1] - The urgency evaluation system is based on a "pressure-state-response" model to assess the need for fallow land [1] Group 3: Spatial Layout and Regional Disparities - Key fallow areas are identified in the northwest, north, and southeastern coastal provinces, where ecological environments are under significant pressure or economic development is intense [1] - There are substantial disparities in fallow land scale among regions, with larger scales in Inner Mongolia and Gansu, and smaller scales in Beijing and Shanghai [1]