智通财经网·2025-08-23 23:37Core Viewpoint - Powell's speech at the 2025 Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Conference signals a clear dovish shift, indicating that the risks of employment decline outweigh the risks of inflation rise, potentially paving the way for a new round of preemptive rate cuts [1][3] Group 1: Economic Outlook - Powell reassessed the U.S. labor market, suggesting that the balance achieved between supply and demand is unsustainable, leading to a significant risk of employment deterioration [1] - The impact of tariffs on inflation is ongoing but is unlikely to trigger a wage-inflation spiral or an inflation expectations-actual inflation spiral, as the inflation increase from tariffs is considered "one-time" [1] - In the short term, the risks of employment decline are greater than the risks of inflation rise, indicating a potential shift in monetary policy [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy Framework - Powell announced revisions to the "Statement of Long-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy," marking the second review of the U.S. monetary policy framework since 2020 [2] - Key changes include the removal of the effective lower bound (ELB) as a decisive economic characteristic, indicating a low probability of hitting the zero interest rate lower bound [2] - The "compensatory" strategy in monetary policy has been eliminated, reverting to a flexible inflation target framework [2] - The focus has shifted from "shortfalls" in employment to "deviations" from full employment, reflecting a more nuanced consideration of labor market fluctuations on inflation [2] - The Fed has provided a method for balancing employment and inflation targets when they are not complementary, emphasizing the need to focus on the primary contradiction [2] Group 3: Rate Cut Expectations - The dovish foundation laid by Powell's speech suggests that a new round of preemptive rate cuts is imminent, with expectations of possibly two rate cuts within the year [3] - Similar to 2024, when Powell indicated it was time to adjust policy, the current statement suggests a significant shift from previous hawkish stances, providing a forward-looking guide for a potential rate cut in September [3] - The anticipated rate cut in September is expected to be 25 basis points, with a total of up to 50 basis points in cuts for the year, constrained by upward inflation pressures [3]