综述丨鲍威尔暗示降息 通胀就业难平衡

Group 1 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at potential interest rate cuts in the coming months despite rising inflation risks, indicating a need to adjust monetary policy based on economic outlook and risk balance [1] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange's FedWatch tool showed that market expectations for a rate cut in September rose to nearly 90% following Powell's remarks, interpreted as dovish signals by many institutions [1] - Powell emphasized that monetary policy does not have a preset path and decisions will be based entirely on data assessments, making the upcoming employment and consumer price index data critical for September's monetary policy [1] Group 2 - The U.S. job market showed signs of cooling in July, with the unemployment rate rising by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, and non-farm payrolls adding only 73,000 jobs, below the expected 110,000 [2] - Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 3.1% year-on-year in July, significantly above the Federal Reserve's 2% target, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [2] - Some Federal Reserve officials expressed skepticism about rate cuts, citing that inflation remains above the target and that more data is needed to support a decision for a September rate cut [2] Group 3 - President Trump has repeatedly pressured Powell to cut rates, stating there is no inflation risk and that the Fed should act immediately, expressing dissatisfaction with the current monetary policy [3] - Following Powell's speech, major U.S. stock indices rose over 1%, the dollar index fell by 0.8%, and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds dropped by over 7.5 basis points to 4.256% [3]