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太平洋:给予箭牌家居买入评级
Zheng Quan Zhi Xing·2025-08-24 02:35

Core Viewpoint - Arrow Home's revenue performance is under pressure in Q2 2025, but product and channel optimization may lead to a turning point in operations [1][5]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Arrow Home achieved revenue of 2.837 billion yuan, a decrease of 8.12%, and a net profit of 28 million yuan, down 25.15%. The adjusted net profit was 14 million yuan, an increase of 6.33% [2]. - For Q2 2025, revenue was 1.787 billion yuan, down 8.51%, with a net profit of 102 million yuan, a decline of 20.86%, and an adjusted net profit of 98 million yuan, down 18.09% [2]. Product and Channel Analysis - The share of smart toilets increased, contributing to product structure upgrades, with smart toilet revenue reaching 661 million yuan, up 4.20%, accounting for 23.32% of total revenue, an increase of 2.76 percentage points [3]. - Revenue from various segments in H1 2025 included: bathroom furniture at 339 million yuan (+1.46%), faucets at 839 million yuan (+0.72%), tiles at 118 million yuan (-10.04%), sanitary ceramics at 1.36 billion yuan (-13.34%), and bathtubs at 120 million yuan (-20.38%) [3]. - Domestic revenue was 2.764 billion yuan, down 5.54%, while overseas revenue was 74 million yuan, down 54.69%, primarily due to changes in the international economic environment [3]. Profitability and Cost Structure - Q2 2025 gross margin improved to 29.73%, an increase of 1.17 percentage points, likely due to product structure optimization [4]. - Net margin for Q2 2025 was 5.63%, a decrease of 0.89 percentage points, attributed to an increase in expense ratios [4]. - Expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial costs were 8.18%, 9.47%, 4.66%, and 0.59%, respectively, with slight increases in most areas [4]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on the silver-haired demographic by launching the "He Yue" barrier-free health bathroom series, addressing specific needs [4]. - Arrow Home is committed to a multi-channel marketing strategy, enhancing retail and e-commerce channels to drive revenue growth [4]. Investment Outlook - The consumption upgrade policy is expected to stimulate demand, particularly from the silver-haired demographic, which may become a new growth point for the smart toilet and bathroom industry [5]. - As a leading company, Arrow Home is positioned to benefit from industry growth, with expectations of improved product structure and revenue performance driven by marketing strategies [5]. - Projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 303 million yuan, 394 million yuan, and 447 million yuan, respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.31, 0.41, and 0.46 yuan [5].