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产业浪潮必有牛市!3个视角让你抓牢主线行情
Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-24 07:04

Core Viewpoint - The recent dovish remarks from the Federal Reserve Chairman have strengthened expectations for global monetary easing, which, combined with internal easing in the A-share market, is expected to reinforce the upward trend of A-shares [1] Group 1: Industry Waves and Bull Markets - Historical bull markets have been driven by significant industry waves, such as the mobile internet boom and the new positioning of electric vehicles from 2014 to 2015 [1] - The mobile internet wave began in 2013 when smartphone penetration exceeded 70%, leading to explosive growth in both hardware and software applications during 2014-2015 [1] - The "Made in China 2025" initiative, introduced in 2015, emphasized the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles, which significantly impacted the lithium battery sector, with the lithium battery concept index seeing a maximum increase of 122% from early 2015 to June 15, 2015 [1][3] Group 2: Recent Market Trends - The bull market from 2019 to 2021 was characterized by the emphasis on self-sufficient chips and the significant development of carbon neutrality, with the chip sector index experiencing a maximum increase of nearly 200% [7] - The announcement of China's "dual carbon" goals in 2020 provided substantial benefits to carbon neutrality-related industries, leading to many stocks doubling in value [9] - The AI industry wave that began in 2023 has been observed from three perspectives: supply chain advantages, software replacement, and hardware replacement, with the communication ETF showing a maximum increase of nearly 120% since May 2023 [10][12] Group 3: Current and Future Industry Waves - Current industry waves include innovative pharmaceuticals, driven by a shift from self-research to purchasing patent licenses, and robotics, which is gaining momentum due to policy support and industry collaboration [18] - The maximum increases of various indices during different industry waves over the past decade include: - Mobile internet wave: Apple concept index up 166.95% - New energy vehicles: lithium battery concept index up 122% - Chip self-sufficiency: chip index up 197.88% - AI software replacement: AI ETF up 67% - Hardware replacement: Sci-Tech Chip 50 ETF up 54.7% [17]