台风“剑鱼”是否会登陆？需关注哪些风险？气象专家分析

Core Viewpoint - Typhoon "Jianyu" is currently a strong typhoon with maximum wind speeds of 38 m/s and is expected to continue moving northwest at a speed of approximately 20 km/h, with potential for further intensification [1][4]. Group 1: Typhoon Characteristics and Movement - Typhoon "Jianyu" is located about 150 kilometers southeast of Sanya, Hainan, and has maintained a fast-moving characteristic, averaging 24 km/h since entering the South China Sea [1]. - The typhoon's structure is tight and complete, indicating that its intensity is unlikely to weaken significantly, regardless of whether it makes landfall or passes near Hainan [4]. - The expected trajectory suggests that "Jianyu" will likely pass close to the southern coast of Hainan, with a possibility of landfall between Sanya and Ledong [4]. Group 2: Weather Impact and Precautions - The typhoon is expected to bring heavy rainfall to Hainan, with areas like Yongxing Island experiencing extreme rainfall of 503.1 mm [1]. - Coastal regions are advised to prepare for strong winds and heavy rain, particularly in southern Hainan and mountainous areas, where localized heavy rainfall and secondary disaster risks should be monitored [4]. - The outer spiral rainbands of "Jianyu" are anticipated to affect regions such as the western and northern Sichuan Basin, necessitating attention to hydrological and geological disaster risks [4]. Group 3: Seasonal Classification - Typhoon "Jianyu," generated at the transition between summer and autumn, exhibits characteristics more akin to summer typhoons, primarily influenced by the subtropical high pressure [5]. - Autumn typhoons typically have more complex paths due to the weakening of the subtropical high, which is not the case for "Jianyu" [5]. Group 4: International Cooperation - The China Meteorological Administration has enhanced communication with Vietnam's meteorological authorities to jointly monitor and prepare for the impacts of Typhoon "Jianyu" as it approaches Vietnam's central and northern coasts [6][7]. - The collaboration includes sharing critical forecast information regarding the typhoon's path and potential intensity upon landfall in Vietnam [7].