海容冷链(603187)：智能柜驱动收入高增 外销支撑毛利率企稳

Group 1: Event Overview - The company announced its performance for the first half of 2025, reporting revenue of 1.79 billion yuan (YOY +13%) and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 220 million yuan (YOY +10%) [1] - In Q2 2025, the company achieved revenue of 880 million yuan (YOY +20%) and a net profit of 120 million yuan (YOY +37%) [1] Group 2: Revenue Change Reasons - In the domestic market, the demand for commercial frozen display cabinets decreased, leading to a decline in sales volume, while the company maintained its market share and industry position [2] - For commercial refrigerated display cabinets, the company increased its supply share among various clients, resulting in rapid sales growth [2] - The supermarket display cabinets saw good sales growth due to the company's one-stop solution and deepening cooperation with existing clients, as well as exploring new application scenarios [2] - Smart vending cabinets experienced rapid sales growth as brand recognition among downstream clients improved due to the company's technological and product advantages [2] Group 3: International Market Performance - The Southeast Asian market showed good growth, while the North American market faced a decline due to tariff policies and clients stocking up in advance for 2024 [3] - Other regions experienced moderate growth in business volume [3] Group 4: Profitability Breakdown - The gross margins for frozen cabinets, refrigerated cabinets, display cabinets, and smart cabinets in 2024 were 35%, 14%, 22%, and 22% respectively, with domestic and overseas business gross margins at 22% and 39% [4] - For H1 2025, the gross margin was 26.7% (YOY -0.9pct) and the net margin was 12.3% (YOY -0.4pct) [4] - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 27.9% (YOY +0.4pct) and the net margin to 13.2% (YOY +1.5pct) [4] - The expense ratios for sales, management, R&D, and financial expenses in Q2 showed changes of +0.3, -0.4, +0.2, and -0.1pct respectively, with a significant reduction in the negative impact of credit impairment losses on revenue by 2pct due to improved accounts receivable management [4] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Based on the latest financial report, the company adjusted its profit forecasts, expecting revenues of 3.2 billion, 3.8 billion, and 4.4 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 13%, 19%, and 16% respectively [5] - The expected net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 are 380 million, 460 million, and 570 million yuan, with year-on-year growth of 7%, 21%, and 24% respectively [5] - Corresponding EPS for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.98, 1.18, and 1.46 yuan, with a PE ratio of 14, 12, and 10 times based on the closing price of 13.93 yuan on August 21, 2025, maintaining a "buy" rating [5]