“反内卷”题材轮动 化工、建材等板块或迎结构性机会

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" trend is reshaping the competitive landscape in industries such as photovoltaic and lithium battery, with a focus on capacity clearing and structural opportunities in traditional sectors like agriculture and chemicals [1][5]. Industry Analysis - The photovoltaic and lithium battery sectors are experiencing a "cooling down" phase, with polysilicon futures prices dropping from a historical high of 55,000 yuan/ton to 51,400 yuan/ton, indicating a significant decrease in market activity [2]. - Lithium carbonate futures prices have also declined from over 90,000 yuan/ton to around 78,000 yuan/ton, reflecting a drop of more than 10,000 yuan within a week [2]. - The overall profitability in the lithium battery sector is under pressure, with a projected revenue decline of 2.8% in 2024, despite a 32.6% increase in shipment volume to 1,175 GWh [3]. Structural Opportunities - Traditional industries such as chemicals and agriculture are emerging as more certain structural opportunities due to differentiation and demand upgrades, with significant capital inflows observed in these sectors [1][4]. - The chemical sector has seen a rise in the Chemical 50 ETF and other related ETFs, with cumulative increases of 16% to 20% since July [1][4]. - The agricultural sector is also benefiting from policy adjustments aimed at reducing outdated production capacity, with a noted decline in the number of breeding sows [6]. Policy Impact - Recent policies are focused on capacity clearing and price guidance, which are expected to reshape competition across multiple industries, including lithium and photovoltaic [5]. - The "anti-involution" policies are anticipated to enhance profitability in related sectors by eliminating low-efficiency competition and outdated capacity, potentially leading to a 53% increase in industry profits over the next two years [6].