梅花生物(600873)：产品及原料价格挤压致使业绩环比下滑 出海战略谋定全球化布局

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a mixed performance in its 2025 semi-annual report, with a slight decline in revenue but a significant increase in net profit compared to the previous year [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 12.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.77 billion yuan, an increase of 20.0% [1] - For the second quarter, revenue was 6.01 billion yuan, down 2.3% year-on-year and 4.1% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit of 750 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 3.8% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 26.5% [1] - The gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 23.2%, up 3.7 percentage points year-on-year, while the second quarter gross margin was 21.7%, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.0% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 2.9 percentage points [1] Product Segment Performance - The flavoring agent segment generated revenue of 3.57 billion yuan, down 8.1% year-on-year, accounting for 29% of total revenue; the feed amino acid segment saw revenue of 5.66 billion yuan, up 3.4% year-on-year, making up 46% of total revenue [2] - The pharmaceutical amino acid segment reported revenue of 250 million yuan, down 1.0% year-on-year, while the raw material by-products segment generated 1.89 billion yuan, down 1.2% year-on-year, and the other products segment saw revenue of 920 million yuan, down 18.7% year-on-year [2] - The mixed performance across segments was attributed to a significant decline in sales prices for flavoring products despite increased production capacity, while the feed amino acid segment benefited from a 98% increase in lysine sales volume [2] Price and Cost Dynamics - In the second quarter, amino acid product prices declined, with lysine's market price dropping to 8.3 yuan/kg, down 16.0% quarter-on-quarter; threonine's price was 10.2 yuan/kg, down 3.6%; and valine's price was 13.7 yuan/kg, down 8.6% [3] - Corn prices increased due to faster grain sales and lower inventory levels, with the second quarter market price reaching 2,348 yuan/ton, up 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, impacting the company's profitability as corn constitutes over 50% of raw material costs [3] Strategic Developments - The company is accelerating its overseas strategy by acquiring Kyowa Hakko Bio's food amino acids, pharmaceutical amino acids, and oligosaccharides business for 10.5 billion yen, with the transaction expected to complete by July 2025 [4] - This acquisition will enhance the company's global intellectual property in amino acid fermentation, expand its product pipeline, and establish new production bases in Shanghai, Thailand, and North America, thereby improving its competitive edge and global presence [4] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company forecasts revenues of 26.87 billion yuan, 29.49 billion yuan, and 31.32 billion yuan for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth of 7.2%, 9.8%, and 6.2% respectively; net profits are expected to be 3.20 billion yuan, 3.67 billion yuan, and 4.00 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth of 16.9%, 14.7%, and 8.8% [4]