一财社论：正视美联储货币政策新框架的影响

Core Viewpoint - The adjustment of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy framework not only opens the door for interest rate cuts but also prompts central banks worldwide to reflect on traditional policy frameworks in light of new technologies and transmission mechanisms [1][6]. Group 1: Federal Reserve's New Framework - The Federal Reserve's new monetary policy framework emphasizes that full employment cannot be directly measured and is subject to change over time, making fixed employment targets unsuitable [2]. - The new framework signals a shift back to a flexible inflation targeting regime, moving away from the previous "compensatory" inflation strategy, indicating that the upcoming rate cuts are preventive rather than aggressive [2][4]. - The adjustment is partly a response to unprecedented revisions in employment data by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, raising questions about the credibility of employment data and undermining the authority of the Federal Reserve's decisions [2][3]. Group 2: Challenges and Changes in Monetary Policy - The current environment presents complexities for the Federal Reserve, particularly regarding the stability and predictability of decision-making based on potentially distorted employment and price index statistics [3]. - Digital technology is transforming the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy, complicating the speed and boundaries of policy effectiveness, necessitating adjustments to the Federal Reserve's adaptive support framework [3]. - The emergence of decentralized stablecoins is shifting some monetary policy functions from the Federal Reserve to the U.S. Treasury, challenging the traditional belief in the independence of central bank monetary policy [3][4]. Group 3: Global Implications of Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve's non-typical rate cuts may have different impacts on global financial markets due to the ongoing restructuring of the global economic system [4]. - The effects of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts on global markets will not be uniform but will depend on the correlation of trade relationships with the U.S. and the acceptance of dollar-based stablecoins [5]. - Countries, including China, need to update their cross-border liquidity stress testing models and better understand the impacts of stablecoins on national currencies and financial systems [5].