大额存单转让潮再现 “4.65%的利息都不要了”！

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the large-denomination certificate of deposit (CD) transfer market indicates a shift in investor behavior, with many customers moving funds from savings to capital markets in search of higher returns amid a bullish stock market [1][4]. Group 1: Large-Denomination CD Market - The large-denomination CD transfer market has become increasingly active, with significant interest from customers, leading to higher predicted annual interest rates on transferred CDs [1][2]. - A notable example includes a 3-year CD with a transfer interest rate of 2.65%, which is being actively sought after by customers [2]. - The highest transfer interest rate observed recently reached 4.65%, significantly higher than the new issuance rate of 2% for similar CDs [3]. Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are reallocating funds from traditional savings to capital markets, driven by the expectation of continued growth in the A-share market [1][4]. - There is a noticeable trend of customers redeeming wealth management products to invest in stocks, reflecting a shift in risk appetite [4][5]. - The current market dynamics suggest that while some residents are moving wealth from wealth management to capital markets, the overall impact on bank deposits remains limited [4][7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical patterns indicate that significant shifts in resident deposits have occurred multiple times since 2005, often driven by low interest rates and strong capital market performance [7]. - Analysts suggest that if the current high-risk appetite persists, the movement of deposits into equity markets could continue smoothly [7][8]. - The entry of retail investors into the market is still in its early stages, with institutional investors maintaining strong pricing power [7][8].